At the Autumn Budget on 26^th November, the Chancellor will look to seize this critical opportunity to rebuild public trust and re-establish credibility on economic management. With record low poll ratings and frosty relations with business, the government desperately needs this moment to be the start of a recovery in its political fortunes.

In a pre-Budget pep talk, the Chancellor urged Labour MPs to rally behind her Budget, vowing to remain in post for the years ahead. She rejected claims that her Budget was a “pick and mix” series of measures, insisting instead that it represented a coherent “package” designed to advance her three priorities: cutting the cost of living, reducing NHS waiting lists, and lowering the cost of debt.

However, the process of formulating the Budget has been anything but smooth. The Treasury has faced a sustained wave of leaks and speculation, fuelling market volatility even before the measures themselves were finalised. In recent months, the Chancellor has found herself navigating political backlash, much of it from within her own party, as well as industry anger over the prospect of wide-ranging tax increases. The perception of mismanagement of this Budget has become so widespread that there have been calls to radically reform the Budget process itself.

She will be hoping that the Budget finally draws a line under the unrest, although many of its measures are unlikely to prove popular. The Lansons Budget Speculation Document has tracked developments and signals from the Treasury over the past six weeks, providing insight into the thinking behind what is shaping up to be one of the most consequential Budgets in recent years.