First published in Political Capital - our weekly public affairs and polling news drop.

We’ve entered the homestretch of the US presidential campaign season.

With less than three weeks until the polls close on Tuesday, 5 November. The brief but action-packed period that President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have been running against each other, following President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, has been extremely eventful. In the past couple of months, both campaigns have broadened their outreach to undecided voters, while rallying their base and pushing to get out the vote with increasingly sharp messaging.

Since our last update, the biggest change from early August is Harris managing to sustain her post-nomination momentum through the summer and into the fall. Despite Trump’s increasingly full-throated efforts to paint her as “mentally impaired” and “incompetent,” the Harris we’ve seen of late has been far more effective at staying on-message and running a disciplined campaign than many expected when she replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.

That’s not to say Harris has been a perfect candidate. She’s taken some heat for the disparity between the more liberal positions she adopted in 2020 — running to the left in the Democratic primary probably feels like a big regret right now — and her current platform, which I feel she dragged her feet on addressing directly. The recent push to get her out in front of audiences that otherwise may not hear her unfiltered (this week’s Fox News appearance serving as a recent example) is probably something that should have started in earnest following her widely lauded debate performance. 

It feels like they’re playing catch up.

After missing the opportunity to consolidate her post-debate momentum and are just now pushing back in earnest against the Trump campaign’s increasingly exaggerated attacks on and the Biden administration’s record.

Trump, on the other hand, has struggled to stay on message or run a particularly disciplined campaign. But, in true Trump fashion, he’s still managed to grab the media spotlight with outlandish rhetoric, delighting his base and horrifying his opponents - business as usual. As someone who runs strategic communications programmes for a living, I cannot imagine this is what his campaign drew up.

If you haven’t been following the race closely — I envy you, I really do — the TL;DR of the last two months might lead you to think Harris has pulled ahead and is likely to win in November. But the polls have demonstrated a stubborn insistence to meaningfully budge. 

A quick civics lesson

Polling models have consistently shown Harris leading Trump by between 2-3 percentage points nationally for the last few months. However, the nuances of the American electoral system are such that votes in competitive swing states matter a lot more than votes in safely red or blue states. And Democrats traditionally win big states by large margins, and lose them by smaller margins, which gives Republicans an inherent Electoral College advantage.

While some analysis shows this edge is fading, Democrats are significantly more likely – and have in 2000 and 2016 – to win the popular vote and lose the presidency, a phenomenon that is once again impacting the dynamics of the race. Polling rock star Nate Silver’s ‘Silver Bulletin’ recently gave Harris a 1-in-5 chance of winning the popular vote but losing the election.

Solid bases and loose coalitions

It’s generally accepted that Trump – whose brand is as well-defined as any figure in recent history – has a very high floor and a relatively low ceiling. Harris, though, feels like she has a lower floor, one that could materialise with a major misstep of scandal between now and Election Day. At this point, there’s little indication the race will shift dramatically toward either a Harris landslide or a Trump runaway.

Harris’s recent efforts to engage with voters through media interviews and public speaking events bring their own set of challenges, particularly as she’s pressed on politically fraught issues such as immigration or the war in Gaza. She needs to walk a tightrope to avoid alienating key voting blocs. This is familiar ground for Democrats, who must cobble together a coalition of voters that doesn’t see eye-to-eye on many issues.

Republicans, and especially Trump, don’t generally face the same coalition-building challenge. They’ve largely been unencumbered by this kind of nuance, with the exceptions of abortion and IVF this election cycle, which became potential liabilities in the wake of the Supreme Court striking down Roe V. Wade. Claiming credit for that “victory” while not seeming overly hostile to a woman’s right to bodily autonomy has proven to be a precarious position to be in.

Both campaigns could benefit from choosing their words carefully in these final weeks.

How will it end? It will end, right?

There will be very real differences between a Harris presidency and a second Trump term. Neither side will take any solace in running a tightly contented race, tip their hat to the winner and quietly lick their wounds. As De La Soul put it, “Stakes Is High” — which also succinctly sums up the endless ink spilled analysing every development in this whirlwind election season.

With major implications for the current international order, free trade, and global markets, the world will be watching closely from halls of government to stock exchanges. I’ll be watching from my couch in Queens, New York.

Regardless of the outcome, a peaceful transition of power that respects the will of the people is crucial. American institutions are still standing, but they’re shaky. I see little benefit in pushing them over. I have high hopes (but limited faith) that Americans will channel Winston Churchill’s famous quote and do the right thing on Election Day and the months that follow. Because it certainly feels like we’ve exhausted all other options.

First published in Political Capital - our weekly public affairs and polling news drop.