- By Ben Stetson, Head of Public Affairs

The Conservatives left Birmingham with more internal confidence and a clearer political centre of gravity than they have had in recent memory. 

The next challenge is to turn a more coherent party into a stronger electoral proposition.

#1. Badenoch has settled the party

Badenoch arrived in Birmingham (and left) firmly in control. Internal dissent has subsided and the Robert Jenrick’s departure earlier this year removed any semblance of competing authority.
She also now has the front bench she wants. Andrew Griffith is central to the economic offer, while senior roles across the shadow team are increasingly held by figures aligned with Badenoch’s instincts and political project.

#2. The Conservatives have found their political centre of gravity

Conference set out a recognisable Conservative offer. Lower taxes, a smaller state, higher defence spending and a firm position on the ECHR provide the party with a clearer set of organising principles.

Badenoch is seeking to make those principles feel more concrete through an agenda built around ownership, work and aspiration. The headline commitment to scrap inheritance tax on family homes was designed to do precisely that and gives the party a clear retail offer.

#3. A better mood, in a smaller room

The mood among members was notably more buoyant than last year. Reform’s recent difficulties have eased the sense of decline, while Badenoch’s growing authority has given the party a clearer focus.

The conference itself remained smaller than in the governing years (unsurprisingly). Limited queues and a reduced exhibition footprint made the scale of the party’s organisational challenge hard to miss.

The party feels more settled, but also more concentrated around a core membership and core set of issues. Birmingham had energy. It did not yet have the appearance of a party on the verge of government.

#4. Andrew Griffith is full of energy and enthusiasm

Andrew Griffith was everywhere in Birmingham. The former Sky executive has become a key figure in the economic team, building relationships across the business community and developing the party’s case on growth, tax and regulation.

Small Business Day was sold out, an important signal in a conference that was otherwise visibly reduced in scale. Griffith has a clear licence to engage business. The task is to turn this engagement into a wider coalition behind the party’s economic programme.

#5. Watch the next generation of voices

Conference also reinforced the growing importance of certain figures who are likely to shape the party’s future direction.

Katie Lam, Shadow Housing Secretary, has become an increasingly prominent voice on immigration, integration and the party’s wider argument about national cohesion. Nick Timothy, Shadow Justice Secretary, remains influential in developing the ideological case for a more interventionist conservatism in some areas, particularly where national resilience and strategic capacity are concerned.

Alex Burghart, Deputy Party Leader, also continues to stand out as an effective communicator with a strong grip on policy detail. These are the outriders Badenoch may draw on as she seeks to build a more substantive and durable Conservative project.

#6. Labour is the target

Labour was Badenoch’s principal opponent throughout the week. The Conservatives want the next election to become a choice between two competing views of the economy and the state.

Andy Burnham’s programme gives them a useful fault line with Labour advancing a case for greater public control, public investment and a more active state. Badenoch is offering lower taxes, deregulation and a more limited role for government.

This is a cleaner political argument than the party has had for some time. It also allows Badenoch to present the Conservatives as an alternative government rather than simply an opposition preoccupied with Reform.

#7. Reform remains the problem

Reform was less visible in the rhetoric from the main stage, but it remains the central electoral problem facing the Conservatives. The party continues to occupy much of the political territory that Badenoch wants to reclaim, particularly on migration, the ECHR, welfare and the environment.

Badenoch’s approach is to reclaim this ground while refusing a formal pact and encouraging former Conservative voters to return. The strategy is to reduce Reform’s distinctiveness without granting it the status of the Conservatives’ principal opponent.

The difficulty is that many of the issues that help squeeze Reform also narrow the Conservative offer. Birmingham showed a party with a more settled leadership, clearer values and a stronger economic message. The wider electoral coalition remains the unfinished part of the project.

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From Party Conferences to the Budget. If you’d like to discuss what the political landscape and Budget could mean for your organisation, get in touch with our Public Affairs team.